Az aktív modell mentett, meccskezdés előtti árai és az azóta megismert eredmények. Összehasonlítás az előző P20-val ugyanazon mentett bemeneteken. Nincs újratanítás vagy automatikus modellváltás.
Kiárazott meccsek: 54. Lezárt, azonosított eredmények: 44.
Teljes S3-árral: 54. D-fallback árral: 0. P20-árral: 0.
Eredménykapcsolatra váró, még el nem kezdődött meccsek: 1. Az áraik szerepelnek a kutatásban, a logloss-ban még nem.
A logloss a valószínűségi előrejelzés hibája: az alacsonyabb jobb. Pozitív gain esetén az új modell jobb a páros mintán. Kevés lezárt meccsből nem következik bizonyított előny; ez nem fogadási profit.
Meccsenkénti összehasonlítás CSV
{
"started_at_utc": "2026-11-09T15:30:02.358898+00:00",
"selection": {
"arm": "s3_ss50-d30-ps6adj20_20261016",
"calibration": [
{
"kind": "linear",
"intercept": 0.0,
"slope": 1.0,
"weights": {
"D": 0.3,
"PS6_ADJ": 0.2,
"SS1": 0.5
},
"release_sha256": "e1c874f9091e08af7c927a1d7c317e85416f16e2002a753107ffe8f97dff477d"
},
{
"kind": "slope_only",
"slope": 1.0473217185429524,
"intercept": 0.0,
"release_sha256": "d53ed7cff108604fb1f5616bf8605812dfe570bd97680aecc030ce37ae9be826"
},
null
]
},
"training_performed": false,
"production_modified": false,
"input_signature": "3c85e4fc257268eac75d758746ceddeaff5e3c149e626e23b8db554056acc4c15618c607fa31052076394b2a6cacca8b5b5b89ecefcd29756166e14a4e6397fa",
"comparison": {
"schema": "active-price-forward-v5",
"generated_at_utc": "2026-11-09T15:33:57.153666+00:00",
"start_utc": "2026-10-22T11:57:03.019746+00:00",
"selection": {
"arm": "s3_ss50-d30-ps6adj20_20261016",
"calibration": [
{
"kind": "linear",
"intercept": 0.0,
"slope": 1.0,
"weights": {
"D": 0.3,
"PS6_ADJ": 0.2,
"SS1": 0.5
},
"release_sha256": "e1c874f9091e08af7c927a1d7c317e85416f16e2002a753107ffe8f97dff477d"
},
{
"kind": "slope_only",
"slope": 1.0473217185429524,
"intercept": 0.0,
"release_sha256": "d53ed7cff108604fb1f5616bf8605812dfe570bd97680aecc030ce37ae9be826"
},
null
]
},
"package": "s3_ss50-d30-ps6adj20_20261016",
"coverage": {
"error_count": 5,
"active_observations": 50306,
"blocked_observations": 2868,
"legacy_blocked_observations": 12,
"selected_matches": 54,
"compared_matches": 54
},
"outcome_coverage": {
"graded": 44,
"registry_link_missing": 5,
"result_pending": 4,
"registry_link_pending": 1
},
"grading_as_of_utc": "2026-11-09T15:30:02.393684+00:00",
"source_series_signature": "5dda79f1069095b753ba6dd1513c18165f9f383841b371d5d3b327b1c339c797",
"source_series_state": {
"schema": "reviewed-source-series-state-v1",
"rows": [
{
"event_id": "1182004",
"match_id": "LoL Game Changers/2026 Season/Playoffs_Semifinals_1",
"teams": [
"Mental Rush",
"SK Gaming Avarosa"
],
"start": "2026-10-19T16:00:00+00:00",
"winner": null,
"series_id": "41809235-55c1-4ba6-a701-ceea8de5cf64",
"orientation": "same",
"mapping_decision_id": 2146,
"mapping_decided_at": "2026-10-19T10:01:59.431953+00:00",
"mapping_actor": "rule:reviewed-leaguepedia-series-v1",
"mapping_evidence": {
"artifact_sha256": "fb591afd48befc89dfb7e4eae8ac0eb7e931fb0e65e852d1b9264cec99f48798",
"plan_sha256": "027c1e66a73ff01b7898c63343973261c3a848dc63bd83bc47edd120f113ec76",
"provider_record_id": 2547346,
"source_key": "LoL Game Changers/2026 Season/Playoffs_Semifinals_1"
},
"series_revision": 1,
"source_record_id": 2583041,
"source_record_sha256": "268ae229f0f240e36bae6f7433f7cd71fa8b629e4442a471c934276f1d4623b6",
"artifact_sha256": "fb591afd48befc89dfb7e4eae8ac0eb7e931fb0e65e852d1b9264cec99f48798",
"source_observed_at": "2026-10-15T22:16:20.039649+00:00",
"source_registered_at": "2026-10-19T10:01:59.431953+00:00"
},
{
"event_id": "1182005",
"match_id": "LoL Game Changers/2026 Season/Playoffs_Semifinals_2",
"teams": [
"Vitality Rising Bees",
"G2 Hel"
],
"start": "2026-10-20T16:00:00+00:00",
"winner": null,
"series_id": "d72383d9-361b-4bc2-9d80-7f69438424ba",
"orientation": "same",
"mapping_decision_id": 2149,
"mapping_decided_at": "2026-10-19T10:01:59.431953+00:00",
"mapping_actor": "rule:reviewed-leaguepedia-series-v1",
"mapping_evidence": {
"artifact_sha256": "fb591afd48befc89dfb7e4eae8ac0eb7e931fb0e65e852d1b9264cec99f48798",
"plan_sha256": "027c1e66a73ff01b7898c63343973261c3a848dc63bd83bc47edd120f113ec76",
"provider_record_id": 2547347,
"source_key": "LoL Game Changers/2026 Season/Playoffs_Semifinals_2"
},
"series_revision": 1,
"source_record_id": 2583042,
"source_record_sha256": "9fc44b043f9384fb35200cec2e877210901366801519fdefda86aac62de876f4",
"artifact_sha256": "fb591afd48befc89dfb7e4eae8ac0eb7e931fb0e65e852d1b9264cec99f48798",
"source_observed_at": "2026-10-15T22:16:20.039649+00:00",
"source_registered_at": "2026-10-19T10:01:59.431953+00:00"
}
]
},
"next_registry_link_due_at_utc": "2026-11-10T09:00:00+00:00",
"pending_registry_links": [
{
"match": "gromp|saigon warriors|2026-11-10",
"snapshot_id": "3d422472473ef29f3affcb7b188cbd229e32471cb176684cfc2f608bcb71bd76",
"match_registry_id": null,
"registry_link_issue": "missing_registry_id",
"research_start_utc": "2026-11-10T09:00:00+00:00"
}
],
"by_inference": {
"s3": {
"n_priced": 54,
"n_graded": 44,
"logloss_new": 0.6014441848353583,
"logloss_old": 0.6349868168724562,
"gain": 0.03354263203709793,
"gain_se": 0.028231964579098715,
"better": 28,
"worse": 16,
"cross_league_graded": 37
},
"d_fallback": {
"n_priced": 0,
"n_graded": 0
},
"p20": {
"n_priced": 0,
"n_graded": 0
}
},
"baseline_manifest_sha256": "bc6399da45e356e2951f7612be345377fcb34da2dae44165d70655ba4e6970e7",
"baseline_ps5_sha256": "39bd33c3fd13583b0226c1b0b6823b8bfce51faf736d7063e8df36fd471ffd54",
"previous": "0.6 TABM + 0.2 PS5 + 0.2 POLY, no correction",
"all": {
"n_priced": 54,
"n_graded": 44,
"logloss_new": 0.6014441848353583,
"logloss_old": 0.6349868168724562,
"gain": 0.03354263203709793,
"gain_se": 0.028231964579098715,
"better": 28,
"worse": 16,
"cross_league_graded": 37
},
"cross_league": {
"n_priced": 42,
"n_graded": 37,
"logloss_new": 0.5718621902587928,
"logloss_old": 0.6070488215967517,
"gain": 0.03518663133795892,
"gain_se": 0.03271623110029927,
"better": 23,
"worse": 14,
"cross_league_graded": 37
},
"errors": [
{
"match": "mental rush|vitality rising bees|2026-10-27",
"snapshot_id": "6ebce203076ffb351a31a91a80fc21c5c66c4391686ac307359ba4dd9a8fa8bf",
"error": "Outcome linkage unresolved: registry_link_missing (missing_registry_id)"
},
{
"match": "bilibili|top|2026-10-28",
"snapshot_id": "1a74730969f17b492d8c91a86ff7c5389b599f00d219d6502abf7576cc23b1bf",
"error": "Outcome linkage unresolved: registry_link_missing (missing_registry_id)"
},
{
"match": "bilibili|dplus|2026-11-03",
"snapshot_id": "c9c65afd612c0c83d8ec5444bc8b630e39cf169e496f83d867555630519d9979",
"error": "Outcome linkage unresolved: registry_link_missing (missing_registry_id)"
},
{
"match": "karmine corp|t1|2026-11-04",
"snapshot_id": "56368acc445ddc14953ccda509647590e7d3648061da585db332e09a9bc0ec7c",
"error": "Outcome linkage unresolved: registry_link_missing (missing_registry_id)"
},
{
"match": "invictus|top|2026-11-06",
"snapshot_id": "24cf0d95ab6797889c181f125a1e8680bbcd2c13acc2f48d94b86dcd5ac60799",
"error": "Outcome linkage unresolved: registry_link_missing (missing_registry_id)"
}
]
},
"status": "failed",
"assessment": "observational",
"completed_at_utc": "2026-11-09T15:33:57.232697+00:00"
}